Is the Permanent Income Hypothesis Really Well-Suited for Forecasting?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Using the Permanent Income Hypothesis for Forecasting
P ersonal consumption expenditures grew by almost 2 percent during 1993 in real, per-capita terms. Real disposable income per capita, meanwhile, actually fell slightly. By definition, households draw down their savings when consumption grows faster than income. In fact, the figures for consumption and income just mentioned underlie a decline in the personal savings rate from over 6 percent in t...
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The Rational Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis implies that consumption follows a martingale. However, most empirical tests have rejected the hypothesis. Those empirical tests are based on linear models. If the data generating process is non-linear, conventional tests may not assess some of the randomness properly. As a result, inference based on conventional tests of linear models can b...
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According to the permanent income hypothesis with quadratic preferences, savings should react only to transitory income shocks, but not to permanent shocks. The problem is that income shock components are not separately observable. I show how the combination of income realizations with subjective expectations can help to identify separately the transitory and the permanent shock to income, thus...
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the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis implies that consumption follows a martingale. however, most empirical tests have rejected the hypothesis. those empirical tests are based on linear models. if the data generating process is non-linear, conventional tests may not assess some of the randomness properly. as a result, inference based on conventional tests of linear models can b...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Eastern Economic Journal
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0094-5056,1939-4632
DOI: 10.1057/eej.2010.14